Practice
Actuarial transition-risk modelling for long-horizon investment decisions.
My active practice is the development and application of stochastic transition-risk models that translate climate policy, carbon pricing, energy prices and real-economy constraints into financial decision metrics.
A fuller account of cases — including ORSA-style climate scenario analysis, residual-value impacts on long-lived assets, and decarbonised industrial investment cases such as sustainable aviation fuels and biocircular construction — will be added in subsequent iterations of this page.
In the meantime, two working papers in the Carbon Risk & Capital Allocation Series set out parts of this framework. Carbon as a Capital Risk Factor (Working Paper 01, February 2026) describes a distribution-based approach to strategic investment decisions under the EU ETS. The EU ETS in Numbers (Working Paper 02, June 2026) is the companion piece — a componentised reconstruction of the EU ETS cap from 2008 to 2025, providing the structural basis on which forward modelling builds.